I might be misreading the graph but is there an error in the X axis of the US Job Openings by Industry Total (Seasonal Adjusted) - Left. Its gets to July 2022 then resets to Dec 2012. I think it should be on the same time line as Job Openings vs Unemployed - Right?
Also - the labor tightness shaking out, early retirement of many and the replacement of those retirees, should be disinflationary. I know you say that trend being accelerated in the span of 2-3 years but if this happens quicker, doesn't that quickly turn an inflationary environment around?
Why do you think this will take 2-3 years for labor tightness to resolve itself? The timeframe, at least to me, seems key in how real wages will act - which will drive inflation, fed policy, and markets.
E.g. If the tightness resolves itself in 0.5 - 1 year (openings falling - companies getting leaner), we end up switching pretty quick from inflation to either disinflation or deflation.
I might be misreading the graph but is there an error in the X axis of the US Job Openings by Industry Total (Seasonal Adjusted) - Left. Its gets to July 2022 then resets to Dec 2012. I think it should be on the same time line as Job Openings vs Unemployed - Right?
Also - the labor tightness shaking out, early retirement of many and the replacement of those retirees, should be disinflationary. I know you say that trend being accelerated in the span of 2-3 years but if this happens quicker, doesn't that quickly turn an inflationary environment around?
Why do you think this will take 2-3 years for labor tightness to resolve itself? The timeframe, at least to me, seems key in how real wages will act - which will drive inflation, fed policy, and markets.
E.g. If the tightness resolves itself in 0.5 - 1 year (openings falling - companies getting leaner), we end up switching pretty quick from inflation to either disinflation or deflation.
Love the articles. Thanks again for your insight!